Incrementality
Incrementality corresponds to the proportion of a result attributable to an action compared to what would have occurred without it. It is a matter of comparison and methodology. Since the most engaged customers may already be the most active, their performance alone is not enough to prove an additional effect.
A concrete example
Sales in a group increase by 12%, compared to 5% in a comparable group. The 7 percentage point difference is a starting point for analysis, not automatic proof of causality.
A point to consider
Groups that were initially different or exposed to other promotions can skew the estimate. Document the differences before attributing the effect.
Plan for comparison before action.
Identify a comparison population and observe its characteristics before launch. When the context allows, randomization helps limit initial differences. Document simultaneous promotions, seasonality, and exchanges between groups. If a robust comparison is not possible, present the changes as observations and the estimated contribution as a hypothesis, with its limitations.
Questions to ask your team
- What would we reasonably have observed without the programme?
- Were the groups exposed to the same external factors?


